Distributed January 30, 2002
For Immediate Release

News Service Contact: Mark Nickel



Taubman Center for Public Policy

York leads Whitehouse for governor; Kennedy leads GOP challengers

A survey of 461 statewide voters conducted Jan. 26-28, 2002, shows Myrth York leading Sheldon Whitehouse and Antonio Pires for the Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial nomination and Rep. Patrick Kennedy leading all potential Republican challengers in the 1st District congressional race. The survey also finds a drop in the job approval rating for Gov. Lincoln Almond, but high numbers for President George W. Bush. Mayor Vincent A. Cianci Jr.’s approval rating has risen since a survey in September.


PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Myrth York leads Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and former House Finance Chairman Antonio Pires in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, according to a new public opinion survey by researchers at Brown University. In addition, U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy is ahead of each of his GOP challengers in the 1st District congressional race.

Job approval ratings have dropped sharply for Gov. Lincoln Almond, compared to September 2001, and approval ratings for Providence Mayor Vincent A. Cianci Jr. rose slightly during the same period.

The survey was conducted Jan. 26-28, 2002, at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory. It is based on a statewide random sample of 461 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points.

In the 2002 race for the Democratic nomination for governor, 36 percent of the 249 likely primary voters say they plan to vote for York (the party’s nominee in 1994 and 1998), 27 percent indicate they will vote for Whitehouse, 11 percent name Pires, and 26 percent are undecided. In September 2001, 15 percent of the likely primary voters planned to vote for York, 14 percent said they would vote for Whitehouse, 11 percent said they would vote for Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty (who since has announced he is not running for governor), 4 percent indicated Pires, and 56 percent were undecided. (The following table includes breakouts by gender, race, party affiliation, union membership and age.)

PiresWhitehouseYork
Gender
     male12%35%26%
     female10%21%44%
Race
     white9%28%39%
     minority20%28%20%
Party
     Democrat6%29%42%
     Independent12%26%37%
Union Member
     yes13%32%34%
     no10%27%38%
Age
     18-248%33%25%
     25-3410%36%35%
     35-4410%35%25%
     45-5411%23%42%
     55-648%21%42%
     65+10%24%47%

Among the 233 1st District voters contacted, Kennedy leads each of his three Republican challengers. If the GOP nominee is Mike Battles, Kennedy is ahead by 52 to 25 percent, with 23 percent undecided. If the challenger is Christine Ferguson, Kennedy leads by 50 to 27 percent, with 23 percent undecided. If the Republican nominee is Dave Rogers, Kennedy is favored by 50 to 25 percent, with 25 percent undecided.

Battles v KennedyFerguson v KennedyRogers v Kennedy
Gender
     male34%46%34%46%33%47%
     female19%57%24%53%20%52%
Race
     white29%49%32%47%28%49%
     minority13%70%13%65%13%65%
Party
     Democrat6%79%10%75%7%75%
     Independent34%42%38%37%33%38%
     Republican64%32%56%32%56%36%
Union Member
     yes33%52%31%50%29%50%
     no24%53%28%50%24%51%
Age
     18-2443%29%57%29%43%43%
     25-3418%71%25%68%18%64%
     35-4419%52%21%50%19%52%
     45-5433%55%35%47%32%43%
     55-6432%52%32%56%28%60%
     65+24%44%26%44%26%46%

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for secretary of state, 19 percent of the 250 likely primary voters say they support Matt Brown, 19 percent favor the incumbent Ed Inman, and 62 percent are undecided.

Matt BrownEd Inman
Gender
     male24%26%
     female16%14%
Race
     white17%19%
     minority32%20%
Party
     Democrat18%16%
     Independent15%22%
Union Member
     yes21%25%
     no19%18%
Age
     18-2425%8%
     25-3429%13%
     35-4415%23%
     45-5423%19%
     55-6417%25%
     65+12%18%

There has been a sharp drop in the job approval for Almond. Thirty-four percent give him excellent or good ratings on how he is handling his job, compared to 35 percent who say it is only fair, 22 percent who believe it is poor, and 9 percent who are uncertain. In September 2001, 50 percent gave Almond excellent or good marks.

Fogarty is rated excellent or good by 43 percent of voters (down from 46 percent last September). Sixty percent give excellent or good marks to Whitehouse (up from 55 percent). Inman is rated favorably by 33 percent of voters (down from 36 percent), and Treasurer Paul Tavares has a 42-percent job approval rating (up from 41 percent last time). Thirty-one percent rate Senate Majority Leader William Irons as doing a good or excellent job, up from 19 percent in June 2001 (the last time his performance was measured). Twenty-six percent say House Speaker John Harwood is doing a good or excellent job, up from 18 percent last June. However, 23 percent rate his performance only fair and 18 percent say it has been poor.

With regard to federal officials, 75 percent believe President George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job, 14 percent rate his performance only fair, and 5 percent indicate his performance has been poor. In September, 68 percent rated his job performance as good or excellent. Sixty percent say the job performance of Sen. Lincoln Chafee has been excellent or good (down from 62 percent). Seventy-three percent give excellent or good marks to Sen. Jack Reed (up from 62 percent). Sixty-two percent believe U.S. Rep James Langevin is doing an excellent or good job (up from 54 percent). Fifty percent believe Kennedy is doing an excellent or good job (up from 42 percent in September).

Despite being under federal indictment for public corruption, 63 percent believe Buddy Cianci is doing a good or excellent job as Providence mayor. This number is up slightly from the 61 percent who rated his job performance as good or excellent in September.

Fifty-two percent feel the state is headed in the right direction, while 29 percent believe it is off on the wrong track. Last September, 63 percent claimed Rhode Island was moving in the right direction, and 17 percent felt it was on the wrong track.

There has been another drop in confidence about the state economy. The Index of Consumer Sentiment for Rhode Island this month was 69.5, down from 75.1 in September 2001, 86.5 in June 2001, 97.9 in February 2000 and 106.3 in January 1999. This means consumer optimism has dropped by 7 percent during the last few months and 35 percent since the beginning of 1999. The index is modeled after five questions from a national index developed at the University of Michigan and is used to determine over time how optimistic people are.

When asked what was the most important problem facing the state of Rhode Island today, voters named the following issues: 18 percent unemployment and jobs; 8 percent the economy; 8 percent education; 7 percent government performance; 6 percent ethics and corruption; 5 percent health care; 5 percent government budget and deficit; 5 percent taxes; 3 percent housing; 3 percent crime; and 2 percent business climate. All other responses totaled less than 2 percent.

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163 or see the Web site: www.InsidePolitics.org.

Survey questions and responses

(233 1st District voters only) If the candidates in the first congressional district were Republican Mike Battles and Democrat Patrick Kennedy, would you vote for: 25% Battles, 52% Kennedy, 23% don’t know or no answer

(233 1st District voters only) If the candidates in the first congressional district were Republican Christine Ferguson and Democrat Patrick Kennedy, would you vote for: 27% Ferguson, 50% Kennedy, 23% don’t know or no answer

(233 1st District voters only) If the candidates in the first congressional district were Republican Dave Rogers and Democrat Patrick Kennedy, would you vote for: 25% Rogers, 50% Kennedy, 25% don’t know or no answer

Do you plan to vote in this year’s Democratic primary? 54% yes, 32% no, 14% don’t know or no answer

(249 likely Democratic primary voters only) If the Democratic primary for governor were held today, would you vote for: 11% Antonio Pires, 27% Sheldon Whitehouse, 36% Myrth York, 26% don’t know or no answer

(250 likely Democratic primary voters only) If the Democratic primary for secretary of state were held today, would you vote for: 19% Matt Brown, 19% Ed Inman, 62% don’t know or no answer

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are: 32% better off, 33% worse off financially than you were a year ago, 35% don’t know or no answer

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be: 32% better off financially, 8% worse off, 50% just about the same as now, 10% don’t know or no answer

Now turning to business conditions in the state as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we’ll have: 36% good times financially, 41% bad times, 23% don’t know or no answer

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the state as a whole: 36% we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, 41% that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, 23% don’t know or no answer

About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a: 56% good, 23% bad time for people to buy major household items, 21% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as president? 34% excellent, 41% good, 14% only fair, 5% poor, 6% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jack Reed is doing as U.S. Senator? 18% excellent, 55% good, 11% only fair, 3% poor, 13% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Lincoln Chafee is doing as U.S. Senator? 10% excellent, 50% good, 21% only fair, 5% poor, 14% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Patrick Kennedy is doing as U.S. Representative? 10% excellent, 40% good, 24% only fair, 13% poor, 13% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jim Langevin is doing as U.S. Representative? 15% excellent, 47% good, 15% only fair, 2% poor, 21% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Lincoln Almond is doing as governor? 6% excellent, 28% good, 35% only fair, 22% poor, 9% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Charles Fogarty is doing as lieutenant governor? 6% excellent, 37% good, 23% only fair, 2% poor, 32% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Sheldon Whitehouse is doing as attorney general? 10% excellent, 50% good, 18% only fair, 5% poor, 17% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Ed Inman is doing as secretary of state? 3% excellent, 30% good, 17% only fair, 2% poor, 48% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Paul Tavares is doing as general treasurer? 4% excellent, 38% good, 19% only fair, 2% poor, 37% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job John Harwood is doing as Speaker of the House? 3% excellent, 23% good, 23% only fair, 18% poor, 33% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job William Irons is doing as Senate Majority Leader? 3% excellent, 28% good, 22% only fair, 6% poor, 41% don’t know or no answer

How would you rate the job Buddy Cianci is doing as mayor of Providence? 21% excellent, 42% good, 15% only fair, 9% poor, 13% don’t know or no answer

Generally speaking, would you say things in Rhode Island are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 52% right direction, 29% wrong track, 19% don’t know or no answer

As far as you are concerned, what is the most important problem facing the state of Rhode Island today? (open-ended responses classified into the following categories): 18% unemployment and jobs, 8% the economy, 8% education, 7% government performance, 6% ethics and corruption, 5% health care, 5% government budget and deficit, 5% taxes, 3% housing, 3% crime, 2% business climate (all others under 2%)

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